“Moreover, we should expect, by chance alone, about 1 in 10 of the CEOs to have five winning or losing years in a row.” from “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives” by Leonard Mlodinow
Let’s say you want to hire the best CEO for your company, so you start following the yearly results of the top Fortune 500 companies. After 5 years you shortlisted 50 of them from the 50 companies that have had 5 successful years! Impressive right?
So your man is one of those clever successful CEOs and your company is off to a brilliant start… Or isn’t it?
Before you hand over a multimillion contract to someone and start dreaming on your future house in the Bahamas, allow me to do some numbers… It will be quick, promise!
Continue reading “What is happening by pure chance?”